Speed to therapy
Every day waiting is a day not on drug.
Waiting hurts three ways: more approved patients walk away, starts slip later into the year, and patients who waited longer drop off sooner. These flow straight into the main model.
01
Wait times
d = days from Rx to first fill
Days from Rx to first fill
Baseline30 days
Program30 days
Reference waitwait at which your rates were observed30 days
Sensitivity to waiting
Abandonment per extra weeka2.0%
Retention lost per extra weekδ0.0020
Your pickup and retention inputs are taken as observed at the reference wait. Waiting longer than that lowers them; waiting less raises them. Sensitivities are hypothetical. Set them to zero to switch an effect off.
02
Three ways waiting costs you
A
Waiting drives abandonment
pickup′ = pickup × (1 − a)^((d − d_ref)/7)
- Pickup after waiting
- 47.0%60.0%
- Starts per 100 Rx
- 28.242.0
B
Delay costs in-year months
first-year months per start = (1 − r^(12 − d/30.4)) / (1 − r)
- Months lost to waiting, per 100 Rx
- 4.710.8
- First-year patient-months, per 100 Rx
- 157270
C
Waiting lowers persistence
r′ = r − δ × (d − d_ref)/7
- Monthly retention after waiting
- 0.8500.885
- 12-month persistence
- 14.2%23.1%
Σ
One week faster is worth
Δ lifetime patient-months × NRx per month × net price
- Lifetime revenue, per month of NRx
- $32,146$70,247
- Current wait
- 30 d30 d
03
Sensitivity
How first-year value falls as the wait grows.
First-year patient-months per 100 Rx by days to first fill. All three effects combined; dots mark current waits.